Lapid Becomes Kingmaker

January 30, 2013 by

The election is over, the votes are in and the results are final.  Despite this, we still don’t really know where we stand.  The coalition negotiations are yet to take place, which will probably add most spice to the process.  The big story coming out of the election is the way in which Yair Lapid managed to propel his Yesh Atid (there is a future) party into second place by capturing 19 seats in the Knesset.  None of the opinion polls ahead of the election gave any indication that Yesh Atid was on the verge of such a significant achievement in its first election.  Many are wondering how Yesh Atid managed to sneak in under the radar in this way, and what the future holds for Yair Lapid and his new party.

It seems as though Lapid managed to pace his election campaign perfectly.  He peaked just as people were heading to the polls, still undecided about whose ticket they would place in their voting envelope.  An exit poll of Yesh Atid voters revealed that as many as 30% decided to vote for Lapid’s party in the last 4 days before the election.  This is an astonishing statistic, and reveals how little previously established voting preferences counted for in this election.  I also think that the combination of right of centre diplomatic polices, centre social policies and the insistence that all groups in society bear the burden equally, proved to be a popular platform for voters.  In particular, the idea that concessions should be given neither to the super-wealthy nor to the ultra-Orthodox, reflects a sense of fairness and equality that most Israelis can identify with.  Additionally, Lapid’s view that civil and social issues should have a higher priority on the new government’s agenda than diplomatic issues, has enjoyed a great deal of support.  Without minimising the threat to Israel or the level of its importance, many Israelis are tired of hearing the prime minister spend most of his time talking about Iran.  They would prefer to hear about how he will strengthen the economy, and make it easier for people to earn a decent living.  Lapid sensed this, and managed to incorporate these views into his platform.

Although the son of long-time politician Tommy Lapid, Yair Lapid has no political experience at all.  He is well-known in Israel as a journalist and TV anchor-man, a fact that clearly assisted him in his campaign.  He needs to use the next few years to accumulate as much political experience as he can if he is truly going to be able to take on the job of leading a government in the future, something he claims to have ambitions to do.  This also means that he has little choice but to join the coalition government that Benjamin Netanyahu is currently constructing.  Acting as leader of the opposition cannot be compared to taking on a senior cabinet role in government.  If Lapid is to progress towards his ambition of being a future prime minister of Israel, he will join the coalition at almost any price.

Despite having stood on a platform that opposed many of the outgoing government’s policies, Lapid and Netanyahu are politically not too far apart.  On paper, Lapid and Netanyahu have remarkably similar diplomatic policies.  Lapid appears more determined to create an environment that will encourage direct talks with the Palestinians than Netanyahu has shown himself to be.  Despite this, Lapid ‘s platform is clear in that it does not advocate the splitting of Jerusalem or giving up on the large settlement blocs in the West Bank in pursuit of a two-state solution.  The main difference between Lapid and Netanyahu becomes more obvious when looking at civil and economic policies.  Lapid is determined to pursue a responsible economic policy, which is also satisfies the calls for social justice.  Lapid’s interpretation of this means that he wishes to ensure that the social burden is equalised across all groups in society.  For the most part, this will manifest itself by reducing or withdrawing the special advantages that the ultra-Orthodox groups have enjoyed over many years.  In practice, Lapid aims to ensure that there is no wide-ranging exemption for the ultra-Orthodox from military service (or some form of national service), and he will be seeking to reduce or withdraw the special government grants that are paid to ultra-Orthodox men who are studying in yeshivot (religious learning institutions).  These two aspects have proved to be a drain on Israeli coffers, and have been the cause of great conflict and anger in Israeli society.

The difference between Lapid and Netanyahu is not because they have different basic convictions on the social and economic issues.  On the contrary, I believe that their basic beliefs are extremely similar.  The issue is that Netanyahu has been forced to accommodate the requirements of the ultra-Orthodox bloc in order to secure his position as prime minister.  He has played to the religious voters who support Likud, as well as to the ultra-Orthodox parties who he has been forced to share a coalition table with in the past.  This has meant allocating vast sums of money to maintain and support the stipends being paid to yeshiva students, and perpetuating their exemption from military service.  Both of these measures are extremely unpopular with the non-religious electorate, and contribute in a measurable way to lack of equality in Israeli society.  The decision earlier in 2012 by the High Court of Justice that the exemption from military service granted to ultra-Orthodox men is unconstitutional, has pushed the government into a corner to force it to make some changes to this policy.  If Netanyahu is able to structure a coalition to exclude the ultra-Orthodox parties, there is a greater likelihood that the required changes on the military exemption will be enacted in spite of the protests on the part of the religious groups.

The ultra-Orthodox parties have sensed the danger to their power base, and have decided to create single bloc out of the seats that were won by the two partes – Shas with 11 seats and the United Torah Judaism party with 7 seats.  Their 18 seats is a counter-balance to Lapid’s 19 seats, and forces Netanyahu to make a choice between one or the other.  It is almost inconceivable that Lapid would sit in a government with the religious parties, and vice versa.  It is my expectation that, after all the  negotiations are completed, Lapid will be in the government and the religious bloc will not.

As far as I can tell, Yair Lapid’s longer-term outlook looks more tenuous.  He has successfully created a political party that bases most of its strength on him as the leader.  Aside from himself, the members of the Yesh Atid list are relatively unknown, and much lower profile.  His platform of policies is not very unique, but rather borrows policies from many others, and packages them in a slightly different way.  His ability to continue to present this package in a unique way is key to determining whether Yesh Atid is a one-hit wonder, or whether it will be around in the future.  Political parties that were built around the fame and personality of their leader, have a poor track record in Israel.  Yair’s own father led the Shinui party, a party that no longer exists.  Similarly, Kadima that was built by Ariel Sharon, is in the process of dying.  There are many other examples of this, and I predict that Tzipi Livni’s Hatnua party will go the same way.  Perhaps Lapid has achieved what he needs from Yesh Atid.  His strategy may be to continue to lead the party in the current Knesset to his advantage, and then to fold into one of the established parties, probably Likud.  This is probably the best solution for Lapid to ensure his long-term survival in politics.

The tens of thousands of people who voted for Lapid are hoping that he will succeed in converting his written manifesto into policies on the ground, to make a real difference to Israeli society.  If he is able to achieve even a small fraction of what he set out to do, the kingmaker may go on to become a king in his own right.  Failure to do so my relegate him to the political trash pile.  The question is whether he is ready to take on the realities of Israeli politics, and to make them work to his advantage.  The challenge is a tough one.

Image from Wikipedia Commons

Filed Under: Politics, Religion Tagged With: , , , , , ,

To Vote or Not to Vote, That is the Question

January 22, 2013 by

The polls have now closed in the election for the 19th Knesset, and predictions of a low voter turnout have proved to be incorrect.  Even though it was claimed that the election campaign failed to capture the imagination of the electorate,  initial information is that this is the highest voter turnout since the 1999 election.  When the votes have all been counted, it is expected that more than 70% of those entitled to vote will have cast a ballot.  The positive trend even applies to the Arab Israeli sector, which traditionally has a much lower turnout than Jewish Israelis.  Overall, this is good for Israel’s democracy, and shows that Israeli voters are less apathetic than was originally thought.  It is entirely logical for Israel to have high voter turnout.  Jews were forced to suffer many years of being denied the right to determine their own destiny.  This should drive people to flood polling stations to vote in order to influence how Jewish life in Israel will be conducted over the next parliament.  There remain decisions to be taken which are of substantial political significance to Israelis concerning the future of the country, and the how to achieve peace in the promised land.  Some may say that these are life and death decisions, and seem important enough to convince most to exercise their democratic right.

Despite the obvious compelling issues that drive Israelis to the polls in significant numbers, there are those who do so somewhat reluctantly.  This is mainly because of the general disillusionment with politicians and the political system.  Gone are the days when people stood for the Knesset purely for the purpose of serving Israelis and improving Israeli society.  The concept of selfless service of our society seems to be a historical dinosaur in Israel, and indeed elsewhere around the world.  While I am not suggesting that people should agree to serve in the Knesset or in government for free or without adequate reward, it is a pity that the reward has become more of the issue than the service.  This has led to increased corruption, and much less trust in politicians and the system that governs the country.  The fact that financial rewards can be extracted has the effect of attracting a certain type of person to stand for the Knesset.  In my view, the public is justified in feeling negative towards politicians, particularly when it is considered that these are the people who will be determining our destiny.

The second reason why people may be reluctant to vote, is the feeling that there will not be any change to the current status quo.  If this is so, why bother turning up to vote?  It has been predicted throughout the election campaign that Netanyahu will be returned as prime minister.  The person who is elected to lead the government is the most important issue at stake in the election.  The rest is in the details.  The fact that Netanyahu has continued to hold a seemingly unassailable advantage gives the feeling that votes cannot, and will not influence anything of any significance.

The government-sponsored advertising to encourage people to turn up to vote has been quite creative and entertaining.  This can claim a great deal of credit for the high voter turnout.  Unfortunately, not the same can be said for the party election broadcasts, and the party election campaigns.  They have been uninspiring, and have not provoked much interest at all.  Better campaigns would, almost certainly, have inspired undecided voters to come out to exercise their votes.

Only a few years ago, Israel had a voter turnout rate of over 80%, and was in the top 25 countries of vote turnout at general elections.  The last three elections before today have shown a dramatic reduction in the number of voters  turning out, to below 65%.  The challenges facing Israel, and the importance of the decisions, are no less than those that Israel was forced to confront at the time of independence in 1948.  Israelis are all required to serve in the army in defense of the country, and this reality should surely encourage people to vote in their droves. Casting a vote for the right option could literally save people’s lives if a peace agreement can be reached with the Palestinians.  For this reason, it is appropriate and pleasing that people have decided to exercise their vote today.

Initial exit polls show that the split between the left and the right-wing in the new Knesset will be very narrow.  This reflects that huge dilemma facing Israelis with regard to the direction that should be taken in dealing with Palestinian issue.  Can we trust that there is a way of agreeing a way to survive harmoniously side-by-side with a Palestinian state, or do we take statements at face value which threaten that the Palestinians will not rest until Israel is entirely destroyed?  Most Israelis really wish to believe that there is a solution to give us the peace that we yearn for.  Many believe that this is not achievable right now, due to the Palestinians taking each concession and using it as ammunition to destroy Israel further.  Israelis are also split on the issue of how to deal with the social justice reforms that are being sought for the economy.  How can we give the weaker members of our society the help that they need, without being irresponsible with the economy?  These are extremely heavy and important issues, for which there are no easy answers. The country seems to be split almost down the middle on these matters.

Irrespective of who will ultimately occupy the prime minister’s office, and who will sit in the Knesset, this day has been a great victory for democracy in our country.  Many countries that achieve voter turnout in excess of 70%, are those where it is a criminal offence not to vote in the election.  In Israel, such a law is not required in order to convince people to come to the ballots.  We are extremely fortunate to have a Jewish state of our own, and to have the opportunity to vote in elections to participate in the determination of the destiny of our country and our people.  This was finally achieved after many years of being denied the right to vote, and being denied the right to determine our destiny.  The turnout today is a vote of thanks to the many heroes who fought so hard to get us to this position,  and a tribute to the memories of so many lives which were lost in the process.

Filed Under: Arab Israelis, Economy, Politics Tagged With: , , ,

Lack of Election Excitement

October 21, 2012 by

Months of speculation have now been put to rest with the announcement that Israel will hold a general election on 22 January 2013 for the 19th Knesset since the founding of the state in 1948.  The Knesset returned to sit this week after the summer recess, and  almost immediately dissolved itself to allow 3 months until the election is held.

Prime Minister Netanyahu announced the early election on national television last week.  He acknowledged that the main driver behind his decision to bring forward the date of the election, is his belief that he will be unable to pass the state budget for 2013 with the existing coalition.  Differently stated, I think that the prime minister has decided that the concessions that he would be forced to make in order to pass the state budget, do not warrant waiting until summer to hold the election.  It is clear that one of the terms that coalition partners will be forced to agree to when the new government is constructed, is that they will support the vote on the state budget.  The new government will aim to pass this as one of its very first acts when it comes into power after the election.

The Israeli public is particularly unenthusiastic about the prospects of being involved in a general election at this time.  This is not an indication that the public does not value the democracy that is such an important part of every aspect of Israeli lifestyle.  It is just that, at this juncture, most believe that an election will not bring about any change to the current set of circumstances that Israelis find themselves in.  If things were going well, this would be OK.  The issue is that things could be a lot better.  The list of challenges that Israel finds herself up against now stretches from economic issues to the conflict with Iran.  We should not forget the ongoing civil war on the border in Syria, and the downturn in relations with the USA.  Rocket fire from Gaza towards Israeli civilians continues unabated, and the politicians have failed to find a solution to resolve the conundrum of how to draft religious young people to the army.  Many of these problems are pressing, and require urgent attention by the political establishment.

The above list of problematic issues may make us seem ungrateful for what we have.  This is not the case, and there are indeed many good things about living in Israel for which we are extremely grateful.  The country continues to develop and grow, and is a miracle of modern times in terms of what has been achieved here in a short period of time.  The good things are not ignored or forgotten by those living here.  It is also true that we all desire more and better, even when things are good.  These desires can sometimes be tangled up with the real problems threatening the existence of the state, and the well-being of its citizens.  There can be no mistake, however, that there are some extremely urgent problems to be taken care of, upon which the future wellbeing of Israel and her citizens rests.  Economic information shows that a high percentage of citizens are living on or below the bread line.  This, in itself, is a very serious election issue and not a luxury or a “nice to have”.  There are a number of other issues that are equally as important.

The problem with the current political environment leading into the next election, is that Prime Minister Netanyahu has no serious competition facing him.  The only real question which currently needs answering is how much of a majority his coalition will have in the next government.  There is no competitor to Bibi who looks remotely electable as prime minister.  This fact leads to apathy within the electorate, as there is a feeling that there is not the same ability to influence the outcome of the election.  As a result, many people prefer to stay at home rather than turn out to vote.  This, in turn, could influence the outcome of the election if too many people who would vote for a certain party decide not to cast their votes.  The other issue with the current situation is that governments are generally held more accountable when the opposition is stronger.  The current circumstances provide a real danger that the opposition will be weak after the election, which potentially gives the government too much of a free hand.

The public is increasingly disillusioned with politics and politicians.  There seems to be endless corruption and dishonesty inherent in Israeli politics, and this causes the electorate to distance itself from participating in the democratic process.  All of this means, sadly, that there is probably more interest in November’s US presidential election than there is in our own general election.

The Israeli economy requires a state budget for 2013 to be passed as a matter of priority by the new government.  Thereafter, there is much more work to be done to ensure that the Iran issue is properly dealt with.  The list of important internal matters which awaits the new government is lengthy.  Even though it seems unexciting and the result appears to be inevitable, the Israeli public are advised to carry out their democratic responsibility and participate in the vote.  We understand that Bibi will continue in office as prime minister, but the make-up of the government is still undecided.  The public has the opportunity to at least influence this.

If we wish to ensure that Israel continues in its role as one of the only democracies in the Middle East, it is critical for all citizens to participate in this democracy, even when it seems that the result is difficult to influence.  It is important to strengthen this democracy by participating in it at every opportunity.  This is no exception.

Image from JSpace

Filed Under: Economy, Politics, Prime Ministers in History Tagged With: , , , , , , ,

Bibi Does Election U-Turn

May 13, 2012 by

Within the space of three short days, early elections were on and then off again.  The timescale of this U-turn was quite astonishing.  On Sunday evening, Prime Minister Netanyahu announced to his Likud party convention that early elections would be held.  On Monday morning, the first reading of the bill to dissolve the Knesset was passed.  In the early hours of Tuesday morning, the new coalition agreement was signed with Shaul Mofaz and the Kadima Party, and early elections were cancelled.  By bringing Kadima into the coalition, Bibi has almost created a government of national unity.  The only main party which is now outside of the coalition is the Labour Party, and its new leader Shelly Yachimovich becomes the leader of the official opposition.

There are a number of people, both within political circles and outside, who feel that Bibi’s conduct on the issue of the elections has been less than fair and honest.  It transpires that he was holding coalition discussions with Shaul Mofaz for at least a week before the announcement that an agreement had been reached.  This begs the question why Bibi decided to make a public announcement about early elections and allow the Knesset to debate the first reading of the dissolution bill, when he was on the verge of concluding a new coalition agreement?  Was this a negotiating tactic to force Mofaz to make the final concession?  The formal announcement that an early election would take place certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons.  No sooner had electioneering got into full force, when it was all frozen.

Even though the way in which it was done raises big questions, I believe that the act of delaying the election is probably more beneficial for the State of Israel and its citizens than proceeding to early elections.  Israel is currently confronting a number of critical issues, and there was a huge danger of these issues becoming too wrapped up with a general election.  Despite the international focus having been moved away from Iran over the past few months, this issue probably remains Israel’s largest challenge in the short to medium term.  Some parties are taking a much more aggressive approach advising Israel to take military action against Iran.  Others are advising a more cautious and conciliatory approach.  Even former heads of intelligence have weighed in with their “words of wisdom”, only in an attempt to exact political revenge on those that they don’t like.  This is a fraught subject that has major implications for Israel and her citizens.  A decision taken by a stable almost-unity government is surely better than airing this issue in election platforms.

There is also the controversial issue of the replacement to the Tal Law.  This is an issue which is split down party political lines as the religious parties are doing their utmost to convince lawmakers to enact a replacement law that will still allow yeshivah boys to be exempt from military service.  Opponents wish to see at least some minimum form of national service which will apply to all of Israel’s citizens, without exceptions.  This is a messy political hot potato that is best kept out of election platform politics.

The passing of the new budget is almost always held to ransom by coalition negotiations.  Parties negotiating possible inclusion in the coalition frequently predicate their support of the budget on receiving key concessions in the coalition agreement.  At a time when the economic stability of many countries in the world is so much under threat, economic high jinks cannot be afforded in Israel.  It would be good to get the budget approved without the need to bow to parties looking to extract value from the coalition negotiations.

For Kadima, the extension of the Knesset term has saved it from election decimation.  There is little doubt that a general election at this time would have substantially reduced its Knesset faction.  At the same time the new coalition agreement has raised doubts in the minds of many Kadima members, particularly those who came from parties on the left of the political spectrum, about whether this is a first step towards uniting with the Likud.  The most senior of these doubters, Kadima council chairman Haim Ramon, immediately tendered his resignation from the party.  He was followed by many grass-roots members of the party in a move which threatens to split the party, even before a single ballot is cast in a general election.

The big winner in this move is Prime Minister Netanyahu.  He has shown himself to be a shrewd political player, even though he has trodden on more than a few toes in the process.  The upshot of all of his political manoeuvring is that Bibi is king of Israel, just as his supporters like to chant at public gatherings.  He currently holds all the cards in his hands, and has a very strong political position to see him through to the end of the Knesset session and into the next general election.  He will need to see out at least one more summer, which is promising to be a summer with greater social protest than we saw last summer.  This is certainly a threat to him, but the electorate has little or no alternative choices to select from.  Opposition parties to the Likud are disparate and decimated.

The electorate has been spared an election this summer.  This will save a substantial sum of money, and will delay the inevitable filthy negative politics associated with election campaigns for at least another year.  I hope that, by the time we reach the start of the next campaign in a year or 18 months from now, many of the critical issues mentioned above that urgently require attention will have been dealt with.

Image by tzipi livni.

Filed Under: Economy, Politics, Protestors Tagged With: , , , , ,

A Little Election Excitement

May 6, 2012 by

Despite the fact that Prime Minister Netanyahu has been out of circulation as he has been sitting shiva following the death of his father, the Likud machine is working hard to arrange the next general election.  According to the law, the election could be called anytime until November 2013.  The prime minister and his advisers, however,  have decided to accelerate the date to September this year.

A bill to dissolve parliament ahead of the next election is due to be discussed in the Knesset today (Sunday 6th May) which could see the Knesset dissolved in one week’s time.  Even before the Knesset has been dissolved, I notice that campaigning has begun.  Advertisements have already been plastered onto buses and primary campaigns have sprung into action.  The election campaign has gained such rapid momentum that it is difficult to believe that only two weeks ago, there was no official speak of an election at all.

The prime minister has decided to call an election now because he is obviously riding something of a wave of popularity right now.  He has had a fairly stable term in office without any major ups and downs.  He has done nothing remarkable, but has also not really put a foot wrong.  His popularity seems largely to have depended on the things that have been happening in the other parties rather than actions of his government.  The other parties have been very helpful in assisting Netanyahu’s fortunes over the term of this Knesset.  The contest for the leadership of the Labour Party resulted in considerable damage to the party as the two main rivals bitterly vied for the top position.  Since then, the new leader, Shelly Yachimovich, has not really asserted herself in any major way in the public eye.  Now that there is talk of an early general election, she has suddenly made a public statement saying that Labour could defeat Likud in the election.  This is nothing more than wishful thinking.  Tzipi Livni’s defeat as leader of Kadima and her subsequent resignation from the Knesset have left the party languishing.  Opinion polls suggest that Kadima could be demoted from the largest party to the fifth largest after the next election.

In addition, the prime minister would have been dreading another summer of social protests.  He managed, somehow, to cling on last summer during the height of the tent protest when his government was being held responsible for the constant and dramatic increases in the cost of living.  He certainly would not wish to repeat that experience if he can possibly avoid it.  The election campaign over the summer months is, I think, partially designed to divert attention away from the social protests and bring other parties into play in the economic discussion.

It will take the Israeli public a little more time to get enthusiastic about the election.  The truth is that it would be very surprising if Netanyahu is not reelected as prime minister.  Most people have already resigned themselves to this outcome, and have moved on.  So what is there to be excited about in an election that is not expected to deliver anything new?  Many will be voting for Netanyahu to register a protest vote against the others, who all seem unelectable.  Even Ehud Barak, who is a previous prime minister, seems a million miles away from the prime minister’s residence in Jerusalem’s Balfour Street in the eyes of most voters.  The minor details of whether the Likud gains 31 seats in place of its current 27 seats, or if Kadima is the largest or the smallest party in the Knesset all seem unimportant in the grand scheme of things.  Voters may be tempted to vote for one of the smaller parties if they believe that strengthening this party’s position within a coalition government may help to promote certain policies or legislation.  This been proven to be effective by the Yisrael Beiteinu party in the existing coalition, which has been prepared to vigorously pursue issues that are of unique interest only to its voting constituency.  It has enjoyed some success where this is concerned, and this fact is likely to secure it a similarly strong position in the next Knesset.

Despite the fact that the election seems not to inspire much excitement amongst the Israeli voting public, especially at this stage of the campaign, there are many reasons why Israelis should be excited and motivated by the election.  We need always to bear in mind that this is the only true democracy in the Middle East, a fact for us all to be proud of.  The election campaign is the greatest example of this democracy at work.  This is also, uniquely, a Jewish democracy.  This gives the chance to debate and vote on issues that are particular to us as Jews, and especially issues that concern our ongoing safety and security within the family of nations.  In this respect, the Israeli elections have an impact on Jews living outside of Israel as well as within her borders.  The more democratic the outcome of the election, the greater is our security and the more secure our future as Jews in the world.  We should remember that the Arab citizens of Israel are also voters, and have their own parties which will send representatives to the Knesset as they have done since Israel was founded.

This democracy is not only important to Israelis and Jews, but is also important to the free world.  Israel is a beacon of light in a dark Middle Eastern ocean that supports and finances Muslim extremism and terrorism in all corners of the earth.  The fact that Israel contributes to a first line of defense against the threats of Iranian nuclear plans, Syrian government violence and Hamas and Hezbollah terrorism amongst others things, will always be a source of comfort and relief to many in the free world.

Unfortunately, democracy does not always deliver the right or the desired result.  There are times that it could be argued that democracy has got things wrong.  The best thing about democracy, however, is that it ensures the people the right to have their say again within a few years, and to hopefully put the wrongs right.  This is certainly the character of Israel’s democracy, and is a cause for celebration.  For so many years, Jews were denied the right to vote in the countries of their residence, and yearned for the opportunity to control their own destiny even in the smallest way.  With the birth of the democratic State of Israel, Jews have been granted the opportunity to exercise this right under the Law of Return.  It requires simply to prove that you are the grandchild of a Jew, and to turn up at the immigration desk at Ben Gurion Airport.

So, while Israelis consider who will deliver the best economic solution for them for the next four years or who will give them the best religious or ecological answers, we should not lose sight of the big picture that this election represents for Jews within and outside of Israel.  Many generations of Jews would have been astonished and grateful for the little things that we take for granted.  We are living their dream.  Long live democracy in the State of Israel.

Filed Under: Arab Israelis, Hamas, Hezbollah, Politics, Security, Zionism Tagged With: , , ,

Egypt’s Elections Produce a Surprise Package

December 4, 2011 by

The Arab Spring uprisings began exactly 1 year ago this month.  The demonstrations against the government of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia began in December 2010, and resulted in him being removed from power 1 month later.  The Spring subsequently spread to many other countries in the Middle East, and has been encouraged by enthusiastic support from the western countries.  Ironically, the one voice of hesitation against the uprisings came from Israel.  At the time, it was difficult for many to understand why Netanyahu did not support the Spring whole-heartedly.  Now, a year later, his reasons are starting to become apparent.

Netanyahu’s concern about the uprisings were most obvious when the demonstrations reached Egypt, and thousands of Egyptians gathered in Tahrir Square demanding the head of President Hosni Mubarak.  It was clear that Mubarak had ruled with an iron fist in the 30 years that he had presided over Egypt.  He was never elected in a free democratic election, and he never repealed the emergency laws under which his government and his security apparatus were entitled to do almost as they wished, and which they used to maximum effect.  Most citizens around the world who have lived in a democratic system (as well as many who have not) felt some level of empathy with Egyptians as they demanded, and finally got, the resignation of their president.  Netanyahu’s voice was a lone one during that time, and it seemed strange to many that the leader of a free and democratic country would express concern about the democratisation of another country.  There were silent whispers about whether the relationship between Mubarak and Netanyahu held more than what was publicly known.  There were mutterings about whether the gas deal that was struck between Egypt and Israel, and which Mubarak’s family are reputed to have personally profited from, possibly held personal profits for Israel’s leaders too.  All the while, Netanyahu was heard to speak out in understated tones about his concerns for the Arab Spring.

Fast forward 11 months since the day that it was announced that Mubarak had resigned from power, and how different the situation looks.  Egypt has undergone its first round of voting in its nascent democratic process, and things are looking distinctly worrying for Israel and the west.  Voting for the lower house of Egypt’s parliament has revealed that Islamic extremist groups are likely to rule in the new Egypt.  The Muslim Brotherhood, which was held responsible for the assassination of former Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and which remained a banned organisation throughout the 30 years of Mubarak’s rule, has emerged as the strongest party in the elections.  There are those who believe that this support comes as a result of euphoria over the unbanning of the Muslim Brotherhood, not unlike the euphoria which saw the ANC sweep to power in South Africa after it was unbanned.  There are those, however, who believe that this reflects a trend towards Islamic fundamentalism  that can be seen in many countries around the world.  This is borne out by the meteoric rise of the Salafist Al-Nour party which received the second highest number of votes in the first round.  The Salafists advocate greater Islamic fundamentalism than the Muslim Brotherhood, and wish to apply Islamic Sharia law to Egypt.  The make the Muslim Brotherhood look like amateur fundamentalists.

The fact that the Muslim Brotherhood had strong showings in the elections in Tunisia and Morocco, is not nearly as concerning as the indications of the trend in Egypt.  Besides the fact that Egypt has a direct land border with Israel, Egypt also enjoys a strategic position both geographically and politically in the current fragile state of international diplomacy.  Is the election result in Egypt showing that some countries are not yet ready to cope with western-style democracy, as so many people claim?  Or is the truth that Hosni Mubarak’s iron fist also worked to protect the west against the scourge of Islamic fundamentalism?  Netanyahu seems to have been one of the only western leaders who understood this at a stage that it was still early enough to do something.  Unfortunately, his was very much a lone voice, and he had no prospect of stemming the tide towards the overthrow of Mubarak.

The Israeli establishment understood as soon as Mubarak left power that Israel’s relationship with Egypt has changed forever.  There are some doubts as to whether the peace treaty signed between late Prime Minister Menachem Begin and late President Anwar Sadat will be respected by the new regime.  Even if it is, a new era has dawned for Israel and Egypt.  This will also manifest itself in Israel’s relationship with the Palestinians.  The Muslim Brotherhood is a close ally of Hamas.  Whereas President Mubarak worked hard with the Israelis to try to prevent Hamas from acquiring weapons into the Gaza Strip, the Muslim Brotherhood is likely to do the exact opposite.  This promises greater and more sophisticated attacks coming from Gaza, spelling real danger for southern Israel, and for the safety and security of the State of Israel as a whole.

It will be interesting to watch what sort of political system will manifest itself in post-Gaddafi Libya.  In this case, western countries were actively involved in overthrowing Gaddafi by supplying NATO air power to assist rebel forces against him.  Now, they will be forced to stand back to allow a new democratic government to replace the old dictatorship.  But who will be the new elected leaders of Libya, and could it be that the west may yet come to regret this too?  Sometimes, you need to be careful what you wish for.

Filed Under: Arab World, Hamas, Palestinians, Terrorism Tagged With: , , , , ,

United States Support for Israel

November 10, 2010 by

US Capital Reflectionphoto © 2008 Terren | more info (via: Wylio)After the recent election, the United States will have 12 Jewish senators and 27 Jewish house representatives.  12% of the senate and 6% of the house is not bad for a minority that makes up about 2.2% of the country.  I expect that those 39 men and women will work hard for their constituents.  I also expect that they will support Israel.

As I have written in the past, continued United States support for Israel is vital to the stability of Israel and the Middle East.  While different leaders have different ways of showing it, the United States has maintained a commitment to Israel continued existence since the Jewish state was born in 1948.

That is not just because politicians want to support Israel, it is because Americans support Israel.  A recent poll showed that 56% of Americans support Israel where only 5% support the Palestinians.  The remainder were undecided or did not show strong support either way.

I imagine the reason for this goes beyond religion.  The United States supports Israel because it is a friend and a democracy in a region filled with hatred, religious dictators, faked elections, and a common desire to destroy both Israel and the United States.

It is easy to tell friends how why we support Israel.  As much as I like to think that I can solve our problems with this blog, it takes concrete steps from many more people to make a continued difference.  I urge every American reader of this blog to make a step today to show your friends, family, and elected officials that you support Israel.

Here is an easy step you can take today:

Write your senators and house representative and tell them why you support Israel and their support is important.  Write about Israel’s contributions to the world and Benjamin Netanyahu’s efforts for peace.

Need the address or phone number to get in touch with your congressional representatives?  Here is a list of contact information for every senator and a search form for every house representative.  If your state elected new congress members that are not listed, you can easily find them with a quick online search.

It is easy to talk.  Get up and do something.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: ,