It has been interesting to watch developments within Hamas over the past few months, and especially since the prisoner exchange deal which saw the release of Gilad Shalit. For Hamas, this has been a significant political event and has driven the organisation’s popularity to new heights amongst its Palestinian constituency. It seems as though this popularity has not reached all parts of the organisation, and that this great political event may even cause something of a split within Hamas.
Since Hamas was founded in 1987, there has been some tension between the so-called Gaza leadership, and the leadership based in exile. Until recently, the base in exile has been situated in the Syrian capital, Damascus. This is where Hamas Political Chief and Hamas Leader Khaled Meshaal has been based, together with his exile leadership team. On the other hand, Gaza Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh and his cabinet are the ones who are ruling over the Gaza Strip on a day-to-day basis, close to the grass roots support that keeps the organisation so popular. While Haniyeh does turn for guidance to Meshal in his capacity as the leader of the organisation, the truth of the matter is that the Gaza team is a fairly autonomous entity. Since the Gaza team succeeded in winning control of Gaza from Fatah in a coup d’état in 2007, they have steadily risen in stature within the Hamas organisation. Recent events have served to strengthen this position even further, to the point that the overall leadership of Hamas may see itself moving from the base in Damascus back to Gaza.
The rise in power of the Gaza leadership really began back in 2005, soon after the death of Yasser Arafat. This event gave the leaders in Gaza the opportunity to raise their profile on the ground, starting with the assertion of their authority against arch-rivals Fatah. The legislative elections held in 2006 were easily won by Hamas even though Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas managed to hang onto the presidency of the Palestinian Authority. A year later, Hamas supporters rose up against the Fatah rulers in Gaza, and asserted their authority on the streets. This brought their victory at the ballot box to reality. During this time, Hamas operatives kidnapped IDF soldier Gilad Shalit, and held him as a bargaining chip for more than 5 years. All the while, Hamas was firing missiles from Gaza into Israel and keeping the organisation’s name on the international stage. These events have helped to popularise Hamas amongst its supporters in Gaza, and amongst extremist Muslims around the world. This popularity has come at the expense of Fatah, but has also caused a split within the Hamas organisation itself. There is no doubt that the Gaza leadership has taken all the credit for these events at the expense of the Damascus leadership.
The Arab Spring has further weakened the Damascus leadership in a few different ways. It is reported that the instability in Damascus has resulted in the exile leadership being forced to move their office elsewhere. Although there is no confirmation of the new location for their office, they may be forced to remain fairly mobile in light of the events of the Arab Spring moving around the Middle East fairly rapidly. Meshal has also been influenced by the Arab Spring and decided to try to use its impetus to suggest the use of non-violent protest against Israel. This suggestion has been forcefully rejected by the Gaza leaders, who continue to subscribe to violent protest and ongoing firing of missiles towards Israel.
This is not the only major disagreement between Damascus and Gaza. The Damascus leadership has been very active in working on the negotiations with Fatah to reach an agreement on a unity government for the Palestinian Authority. Besides the compromises that each side has been forced to make to reach an agreement with the other, there is another key elephant in the room. This is the issue of the talks with Israel which are back on the table, albeit at a very low level. The Gaza leadership remains absolutely opposed to reaching any agreement with Fatah, all the time that Fatah is willing to enter into negotiations with Israel. This view seems to have prevailed over the past few weeks. Despite having signed an agreement to enter into a unity government with Fatah amidst some fanfare in Cairo, Hamas has taken no active steps towards making this agreement a reality.
These events culminated in an announcement last week that Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal has decided not to see re-election as the movement’s chief in elections which are due to take place later during 2012. This seems to be an acknowledgement on Meshaal’s part that he will be defeated in the election. Rather than be defeated, he would prefer to bow out in a more elegant way. Favourite to replace him is Ismail Haniyeh, leader in Gaza.
All of this indicates something of a radicalisation of Hamas in the future. The Gaza leadership is naturally much more radical than that in Damascus, and the future path of Hamas is bound to be strongly influenced by this. In addition, the rise to power of the Muslim Brotherhood across the border in Egypt is ominous. Hamas was founded as an off-spring of the Muslim Brotherhood, and continues to have a close relationship with this organisation. The Mubarak regime succeeded to some degree in limiting the flow of arms into Gaza from Egypt, but the floodgates will be open now that the Muslim Brotherhood is calling the shots in Cairo.
While there were indications of compromise and understanding coming from the Damascus leadership, this appears almost certainly to have been overruled by the approach of conflict and confrontation dictated by the Gaza leadership. This almost certainly means a continued schism within Palestinian politics between Fatah and Hamas. For Israel, this probably means that another Gaza operation, similar to Operation Cast Lead, is inevitable in response to the continued missile attacks that seem almost assured. In Middle East politics, this is a huge opportunity that will be missed.
Image by corbis.com.
About the author
- More at
Comments on this entry are closed.