Could Israel Attack Iran Alone?

by Eric on April 21, 2010

IAI Kfir

If I sum up everything I have ever read about Iran‘s pursuit of nuclear weapons, if the United States would agree to join in, Israel would attack Iran‘s nuclear sites without any hesitation.  However, the situation is not nearly that simple, and the complexities of attacking Iran have Israel thinking twice about an attack.

While Israel is waiting patiently, the date when an attack might be necessary is quickly approaching.  Iran has four planned nuclear sites, and enrichment is taking place today.  While they claim it is peaceful, Iran‘s leaders have publicly called for a genocide against the Jewish people in Israel.

Charles Levinson at The Wall Street Journal did a great analysis of Israel’s reasons for attacking and reasons for waiting.  Of course, the great reason to attack is to protect Israelis (and other Western countries, whether they believe it or not) from the threats of a radical, Islamic, nuclear armed, terrorist supporting country.  The list of reasons not to attack is much longer.

First off, the physical difficulty of the attack makes the chances of success far less than 100%.  Iran has anti-aircraft weapons, heavily secured nuclear sites deep underground, and has neighbors far from friendly to Israel separating it from harm.  In the event Israel were to attack, it would have to route planes over Turkey and Iraq or Saudi Arabia.  Both are Muslim countries friendly to the United States, and breaking their trust would not be an easy thing for Israel or the US to overcome.

Second, Israel has a great, through seemingly deteriorating, relationship with the United States.  The US has been a great supporter over the years, and $3 billion in IDF funds, along with most of its equipment, is nothing to scoff at.  The United States also has a 200 person radar unit in Southern Israel that is very valuable in detecting rocket attacks from other countries around the Middle East.

If Israel were to just go and blow up Iran’s nuclear sites, the United States may be drawn into a war when its resources are already spread thin between Iraq and Afghanistan, both neighbors to Iran.  Without formally declaring war, Iran could arm, equip, and promote attacks against US forces around the region and disrupt fuel supplies to the rest of the world.  As Levinson points out, with gas at $10 per gallon, US citizens may force Israel friendly policies out the door.

The third major reason to hold back is security.  If Israel attacks, it should expect a quick response.  Iran has proxy armies in Gaza and Southern Lebanon that have shown that they do not mind a war with Israel.  Iran also has long range missiles that can easily reach Israel, though the targeting systems are not sophisticated enough to guarantee a hit on civilian populated areas.

Israel has a strong missile defense system, and is rolling out a three layered defense system that would be able to target short range, medium range, and long range attacks.  The bulk of missiles from Iran would likely be intercepted, but civilian loss of life would be likely, and military loss of life would be inevitable.  Unlike Hamas and Hezbollah, Israelis care if its people are killed.

It seems that waiting is okay for now, due to the reasons above.  It is important to note, though, that when an existential threat materializes, it is no doubt better to prevent an attack than wait to be wiped out.  Every day, Iran is closer to having a nuclear bomb in its possession.  That could end up in Hezbollah’s hands, Hamas’ hands, or on the top of a long range missile aimed at Tel Aviv.  Any of those situations is completely unacceptable to Israel and should be to the United States as well.

The balance of power in the Middle East is at risk, and it is vital that Israel not wait until it is too late to keep Iran from having nuclear weapons.  The United States is fully able to prevent this path, but it seems unwilling to make any solid steps today.  We are waiting for sanctions to pass through the United Nations like a dog with its tail between its legs, and it is time to wake up to the realities of the world we live in today.

About the author

Eric Eric is the founder and editor of IsraelSituation.com. He has been to Israel many times including a semester at Hebrew University of Jerusalem. He is the former president of the Israel advocacy group at the University of Colorado and teaches about Israel and the Media at a local religious school.

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  • http://www.israelsituation.com/ Anthony Reich

    This is an interesting and complex issue.

    I don’t believe that an attack on Iran, even if it did not directly involve the US, would draw the US into more of a war than it is currently involved in. Iran is already arming, equipping and promoting attacks on the US. The war was declared a long time ago. I suspect that the US understands enough about the threat which Israel is under, such that it will not “punish” Israel for an attack on Iran. It may not be wholly supportive, but I don’t believe (maybe I don’t want to believe) that the US will castigate Israel.

    I am not convinced that Israel has a missile defence system that is sufficiently strong or comprehensive to counter an Iranian response, which will be dramatic. I feel sure that Israel will suffer casualties in the event that we decide to attack Iran. The government will surely deploy the full might of the missile shield, and will ensure that all citizens are in bomb shelters. There will, however, be a mighty response that will exact casualties. This price is the smaller price to pay, as opposed to waiting longer and running the risk that Iran’s nuclear production is more advanced than we thought.

    For me, there are few reasons to delay the attack on Iran any longer.

  • http://dentistchiswick.org Quinton Trinklein

    Superb. What a wonderful blog page! Thanks for the effort you’ve taken to publish. Continue the very good work.

    • http://www.israelsituation.com/ Eric

      Glad you like it Quinton, come back regularly to stay updated or sign up for e-mail updates to make sure you are up to date.

  • Rehim alavi

    I think israel is a greator foolish if he attack on iran . Irani people has great experience of fighiting in iran iraq war iran has good missile range and hizbollah hamas and other supporter in pakistan bahrain yemen will support iran and whole region will on fire so usa must think about price

  • Achaemenes_I

    This article is upsetting really because it makes a patently false statement: “Iran’s leaders have publicly called for a genocide against the Jewish people in Israel.” It is not even a little bit correct. Iranian leaders, such as Ahmadinejad, never made threatening statements towards or about Israel (certainly nothing negative about Jewish people). The speeches that he has given are widely available on the internet both in translation and on video. In all cases, he refers to the eventual demise of the “Zionist regime”. What he says is that like the regimes of Saddam Hussein and the USSR, “…so too will the Zionist regime pass from the pages of time.” Iran has been home to the Jews far longer and continuously than Israel has been. They have been there since Biblical times (“Children of Esther”) and they are not persecuted. Antisemitism, largely a white Christian European phenomena, is not a serious problem in Iran and Jews are not being rounded up or harmed, synagogues are many in the capital and Jews pray openly and freely there. The Jews in Iran are not complaining. They in fact retain high positions and have a disproportionately large voice in the legal system there. So although no one is defending Ahmadinejad’s insensitive remarks over the Holocaust or fundamentalist Islamic rule there, I wish the US and Israeli media would stop using this incorrect and provocative translation that seems to have gone viral under Netanyahu’s time in office. If there is clearly a statement from Iran (not an interpretation by CNN or the NY Times) that they intend to harm Jews or Kill people, then let that be known. If he writes a Mein Kampf then that is different. We seem invested in war propaganda. Attacking Iran, a country three times the size, resource, military, and population of Iraq or Afghanistan, is foolish. They have not attacked a country in hundreds of years and the notion that their goal is to nuke Israel and then just sit back is not a sustainable argument. There (understandable) defiance is based on a long and complex relationship with the USA and prior to that England and Russia.

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